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The More Things Change, The More They Are The Same

I read a very interesting newspaper article the other day. It was a wireservice feed from Paciffic News Service, written by Larry Adelman and published in the San Francisco Chronicle. Mexico has recently gone through a period of spectacular growth, he said. It has done so by exploiting its' natural resources, most notably its oil reserves. It has relied on its export sector to provide the cash flow it needs, and it has borrowed heavily against its projected increases in exports. Fifty percent of its gross domestic product now goes to service its debt.

The results have been felt, he said, throughout the various sectors of the economy. For the foreign capitalists who have come to Mexico to invest, there are special incentives in the way of tax breaks, accelerated depreciation allowances, and the guarantee of sustained low labor costs through government wage controls. For the professional classes and among the privileged in the ruling party and their friends, the money has been flowing freely, and fortunes are being rapidly made.

For the rest of the population, things are not as good. Because there are fewer controls on prices than on wages, inflation has cut into real wages -- the amount of goods and services people can buy -- by 20%. 40% of Mexicans live in abject poverty.

There is concern about the future of the agricultural sector. Since 50% of all Mexican crops are now grown for export, and since basic crops such as beans, rice and corn have been neglected by farmers seeking the higher income that growing tomatoes, avacados and other export crops will bring, it is now necessary to import basic foodstuffs, whereas Mexico used to be self sufficient in agriculture. When combined with the rising population, this poses a very dangerous scenario for the average consumer.

Finally, there are the massive population shifts, as economic adjustments and population growth result in ever-increasing numbers of campesinos abandoning their farms and villages and heading for the large cities or the U.S. to seek employment.

The U.S. should be concerned, the author asserts, because Mexico is an important "buffer state", protecting the U.S. from the social upheavals going on in its neighbors to the south. A stable Mexico is clearly in the U.S. national interest, but the social strains caused by policies originated in and encouraged by the U.S. are in part responsible for the current worrisome situation.

This article, which so well describes the current situation in Mexico, was written in January, 1981 -- over 15 years ago. When it was published, José Lopez Portillo was president. A guerrilla movement which threatened to destabilize the State had been crushed in Guerrero and elsewhere. On the surface, Mexico was a peaceful and prospering nation.

Now it is September 16, 1996, and Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León is the leader of Mexico. Last night, he led the nation in El Grito (the shout): Viva Mexico! (see this column, "Bread and Circuses"). Today there will be parades and speeches. There will also be acts of violence and propaganda by the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), which has arisen in recent weeks to threaten the stability of the government.

In his recently published book, "Bordering On Chaos", Andres Oppenheimer examines the developments of the last 15 years in Mexico, and attempts to predict what the future holds. It is not an encouraging scenario. Still, Oppenheimer's book should be read, if only to be filed away and looked at again, fifteen years from now.

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